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Pay No Attention To ATS Records

POSTED: 11:28 am EST November 2, 2009

(Sports Network) - Connecticut came into last Saturday's game with Rutgers as the lone unbeaten team in the country against the spread. The Huskies, favored by 7.5 points in their first home game since the death of Jasper Howard, not only failed to gain the ATS victory, but lost the game outright on an 81-yard touchdown pass from Tom Savage to Tim Brown inside the final minute of play.

Betting on teams based on their season's ATS records is an easy way to lose money, and that contest proved just that.

After the game was completed, I decided to check last year's records of all 120 teams and see how the best and worst ATS clubs from that season are doing in '09. The results were somewhat predictable.

There were 22 teams last year that finished at least four games above the .500 mark against the spread, led by Florida at 12-1, North Carolina State at 10-2 and Oklahoma at 10-3.

The combined ATS record of those 22 clubs was 191-81, good for a 70% winning percentage. This season, those same 22 teams are 77-79 ATS with only eight squads above .500. In addition, Florida, NC State and Oklahoma are a combined 8-11-2.

On the other side, there were 14 clubs that ended up below the .500 mark by four games or more, led by Washington at 1-11 and Fresno State at 2-11. This season, those same 14 teams are 56-48-1 (54%), a much-improved record over last year's 41-126 mark (25%).

The Huskies and Bulldogs have not been weekly money-makers this season at a combined 8-6-1, but some other squads have picked up the slack. Wyoming is currently 6-1 ATS after a dismal 2-9 record in '08, while Indiana and Washington State are a combined 10-6, despite going 6-17 ATS just one season ago.

Based on all those numbers, one can easily conclude that ATS records do not transfer from one season to the next, and should not be used when analyzing which team to wager on.

CONFERENCE HOME UNDERDOGS

One angle that many handicappers use on a week-to-week basis is betting on conference home underdogs. After two weeks of taking it on the chin (8-13 in week seven and 4-12 in week eight), those gamblers were rewarded last Saturday with nine covers in 14 games.

A couple of the highlights were Auburn and Illinois, two teams that gained outright victories over Ole Miss and Michigan, respectively. But perhaps the biggest win of the bunch came from a team that shouldn't have been an underdog in the first place.

Oregon came into the game vs. Southern Cal as one of the hottest teams in the country, outscoring its opponents by a 161-38 margin the previous four games. USC, on the other hand, had allowed 63 points in its prior two contests - the most Pete Carroll's team had allowed in a two-game span since the '03 season.

The Trojans had zero answers defensively vs. the Ducks, giving up 613 total yards of offense while the 27-point loss was their most lopsided defeat in over 10 years. Nevertheless, those numbers pale in comparison to this next bit of information, a juicy nugget that will raise the eyebrows of every single college football enthusiast in the country.

With the 47 points allowed on Saturday, the Trojans have now given up the most points ever (110) in a three-game stretch in the history of the program, one that dates back to 1888! So much for a defense that allowed only 43 points in the first five games.

USC should bounce back with a SU win this week at Arizona State, especially since the Trojans have won the last nine meetings. However, they have not fared too well ATS on the road in conference play of late, with only six covers in their last 23 games.

A THURSDAY TWO-STAR SELECTION

Temple is riding high this week after winning its sixth straight game, a victory that has the Owls bowl-eligible for the first time since 1979. The celebrations better be short, due to the quick turnaround that comes with Thursday night's game with Miami-Ohio.

The RedHawks also face a shortened week, but the oddsmakers aren't expecting much from them even though they picked up their first "W" of the season this past Saturday against Toledo.

The Owls used up a ton of energy to topple Navy - a game they were amped up for all week long. Not only did they need only one more win for their sixth of the year, they had revenge on their minds after the Midshipmen stunned them in last season's contest, overcoming a 20-point deficit with 14 minutes before winning in overtime.

Take Miami-Ohio plus the points.

THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 10

The Top 10 list is a guide for predicting spreads for the upcoming week.

1) Texas, 110.5; 2) Florida, 107; 3) Oklahoma, 103; 4) Boise State, 102.5; 5) Oregon, 102; 6) TCU, 101; 7) Alabama, 100.5; 8) Penn State, 98.5; 9-T) Ohio State and Georgia Tech, 98.


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